College Football AP Top 25: Analyzing How Brett McMurphy’s Picks Stack Up Against the Preseason NCAA Football Rankings

For the second consecutive season, Georgia is ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll. That’s the good news for the Bulldogs.

Now the bad: 18 of the last 20 AP preseason No. 1 ranked teams failed to win the national title, including Georgia last year. Woof.

Following No. 1 Georgia, which is ranked in the preseason Top 5 for a seventh consecutive season, is No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 4 Texas, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 7 Notre Dame.

What’s the significance of those top seven teams? Odds are this year’s national champion will be one of those seven.

Since 2004, every national champion was ranked among the AP preseason’s top seven teams, except for Florida State (2013, started No. 11) and Auburn (2010, started No. 22).

Football AP Top 25 Rankings

1. Georgia Bulldogs

          Brett College McMurphy’s Rank: 2

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

          Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 3

3. Oregon Ducks

          Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 1

4. Texas Longhorns

         Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 4

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

         Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 5

6. Ole Miss Rebels

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 6

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 9

8. Penn State Nittany Lions

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 7

9. Michigan Wolverines

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 17

10. Florida State Seminoles

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 15

11. Missouri Tigers

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 14

12. Utah Utes

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 10

13. LSU Tigers

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 20

14. Clemson Tigers

              Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 13

15. Tennessee Volunteers

 Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 18

16. Oklahoma Sooners

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 16

17. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 12

18. Kansas State Wildcats

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 11

19. Miami Hurricanes

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 8

20. Texas A&M Aggies

              Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 21

21. Arizona Wildcats

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: Not Ranked

22. Kansas Jayhawks

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 25

23. USC Trojans

             Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 22

24. NC State Wolfpack

              Brett McMurphy’s Rank: Not Ranked

25. Iowa Hawkeyes

Brett McMurphy’s Rank: 19

While Georgia tries to overcome the preseason No. 1 jinx, here are some other historical preseason Top 25 notes:

• No. 2 Ohio State is ranked in the top two of the preseason poll for the 18th time in school history, including the sixth time in the past nine years. Ohio State has never won the national title when starting the year ranked No. 1 or No. 2.
• No. 3 Oregon is ranked third for the first time since 2014, when the Ducks finished No. 2. That season, they lost the inaugural College Football Playoff title game to Ohio State.
• No. 4 Texas is ranked in the top five for the first time since 2010, when the Longhorns started No. 5 but finished the year unranked.
• No. 5 Alabama is ranked in the preseason top five for the 15th consecutive season, the nation’s longest current streak. However, Alabama’s No. 5 ranking is its lowest during that stretch. The last time Alabama started the year No. 5 was in 2009, Nick Saban’s third season, when the Tide won the national championship, defeating Texas in the BCS title game. The game is also referenced by Longhorns fans as the “If Colt McCoy Didn’t Get Hurt” game.
• No. 6 Ole Miss is ranked in the preseason top 10 for only the second time in 53 years. However, this is the second time in Lane Kiffin’s coaching career that he’s had a preseason top-five team. In 2012 at USC, Kiffin’s Trojans started as the preseason No. 1 but finished the year unranked.
• No. 11 Missouri just missed a preseason top 10 ranking for only the second time in school history. But this is still Mizzou’s first preseason Top 25 ranking since 2015.
• Not ranked, no problem. There has been at least one team every season in the past 30 years — except for 2020 and 2011 — that started the year unranked but finished the season ranked in the Top 10. Last year, Missouri turned the trick, starting unranked and finishing No. 8.
• From the penthouse to the outhouse. Every year for the past 21 seasons — except 2019 — there has been at least one preseason Top 10 team that finished the year unranked. Last year, it was preseason No. 6 USC that finished unranked. So, take a good look at the top 10 and try to figure out which team won’t be ranked at the end of the year.

Here are the current head coaches whose teams started the year ranked in the AP’s preseason top 10 and finished the season unranked:

• Lincoln Riley, USC (2023)
• Dave Aranda, Baylor (2022)
• Brent Venables, Oklahoma (2022)
• Mack Brown, UNC (2021)
• Matt Campbell, Iowa State (2021)
• James Franklin, Penn St (2020)
• Mario Cristobal, Oregon (2020)
• Gus Malzahn, Auburn (2018 & 2015)
• Brian Kelly, Notre Dame (2016)
• Lane Kiffin, USC (2012)

A special mention goes out to former Texas A&M and Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher, who is no longer coaching or part of this above list.

Fisher had three different preseason top 10 teams at Florida State and Texas A&M that finished unranked at season’s end — the only coach in college football history to do so three times.