Adelaide Strikers Vs Melbourne Stars Big Bash Tips: Strikers Could Go Big Batting First
Ed Hawkins analyzes the Friday contest and identifies two runs-related betting opportunities, highlighting the Stars’ struggles with the ball.
Key Points
- Strikers Should Get Off the Mark
- Still No Maxwell for Stars
- No Toss Bias in Night Games
- Matt Short Ready for Runs
Team News
Adelaide Strikers Team News
Strikers should have a win under their belt. That they don’t is due to a nightmare over from Lloyd Pope, who conceded 31 in the 19th over against Sydney Thunder in a stunning comeback. Ordinarily, Pope might be rested, but an injury to Fabian Allen looks costly.
Allen limped from the field against Thunder, and had he been fit, it is hard to see how Strikers would have lost the game. Ollie Pope, who could keep instead of Nielsen, may come in for his debut, while D’Arcy Short’s spin may make him a decent replacement for Allen. We await news on whether Brendan Doggett is available after Australia squad duty.
Possible Strikers XI: M Short, Weatherald, Lynn, Pope, Ross, Nielsen/D Short, J Overton, Bazley, Thornton, Boyce, Doggett/Buckingham
Melbourne Stars Team News
Stars have lost their two, and it looks like being a long campaign. Glenn Maxwell is unlikely to be fit until after Christmas. Joe Clarke plays his last game before being replaced by Ben Duckett.
They were well beaten by Heat on Wednesday, giving up a target of 162 with almost two overs to spare. Their bowling stocks look low, with Joel Paris, Mark Steketee, and Peter Siddle not picked against Heat, and then Brody Couch bowling a single over.
Possible Stars XI: Clarke, T Rogers, Harper, Stoinis, Cartwright, Webster, T Curran, McKenzie, Kellaway, Milne, Couch
Pitch Report
There is no toss bias in night games at Adelaide. The trend we’re looking for instead is runs. Australia smashed 241 against West Indies in February, and in the previous eight, six teams batting first breached 200.
Strikers are much more reliable with the bat, and Stars’ bowling issues could be exposed here. We might be able to get 1.83 about more than 175 Strikers. No rain is forecast.
Match Prediction
Strikers are 1.74 with Stars 2.06. We expect that Stars price to drift significantly when more money becomes available.
It is hard to argue that Strikers are not the right price. They have proved to be a far more efficient unit than Stars over the last few seasons and can put down the defeat by Thunder as a blip.
Oddly, Strikers have lost the last three on the head-to-head, but with Stars already in disarray, particularly with the ball, this looks like a golden opportunity to end that sequence.
Player Bets
It could be the time to get involved with Matt Short for runs on a flat one at Adelaide Oval. He has a win rate of 31% on top bat in the last two years.
We swerved him in Canberra because the pitch wasn’t quite right, but on this venue, he averages 39 and strikes at 147. Sportsbook’s 5/2 is a bet. A cheap runs bet at 22.5 is available at 10/11, too. That has won 15 times in his last 26 Bash appearances.
Recommended Bets
- (1pt) Back Strikers over 175 1st inns runs @ 1.83
- (1pt) Back Matt Short over 22.5 runs @ 10/11
